Tolly Predictions

Tolly Predictions: B1G Bowl Games

Who Goes Where? Who Plays Who? 

These predictions are based on 4 things.

The B1G has a bowl draft structure where the bowls pick in a specific order, but the conference has to approve the pick. There are also back door deals for teams, certain bowls want a certain team, and the B1G has a loose no repeat rule so a team doesn’t go to the same bowl year after year.

Here are my B1G Bowl predictions listed in the order they get to “draft” B1G teams.

1 – Rose Bowl

Michigan vs Oregon – CFP Semi-Final

One last traditional Rose Bowl. Pac-12 vs B1G. I predict Michigan will be ranked #2 and Oregon will be #3. Michigan gets the Rose Bowl because #1 Georgia gets their preference between the Sugar and the Rose… they will pick the Sugar.

2 – Orange Bowl

Ohio State vs Florida State – ACC vs SEC/B1G/ND

The Orange Bowl gets the top ACC team that doesn’t make the playoffs. Well, I have the ACC missing the playoffs completely because of a Louisville win over FSU. BUT, I think the committee …

Tolly Predictions: CFB Conference Title Games – P5 Edition

The Post Season Has Begun, It’s Time to Crown Some Champions.

The outcome of these games will determine who makes the final iteration of the 4 team playoff. 7 of the 10 Power 5 teams competing next weekend have a shot to make the final 4 (sorry Louisville, Oklahoma State, and Iowa) Below are my predictions for the P5 Conference Championship games, and how I think the race for the 4 Team Playoff pans out. 

  • Odds listed refer to spreads taken from FanDuel at the time of writing
  • All kickoff times listed are Central Time

Pacific-12 Conference (Pac-12):

Friday, 7:00 PM – Allegiant Stadium – Las Vegas, Nevada

Oregon vs Washington (+9.5)

Prediction:
Oregon 42
Washington 35

Expect a full blown offensive explosion. A lot of writers out there think Oregon will splatter the Huskies. I have Oregon winning, but I also have the score close enough that some Big Penix Energy could lead Washington to a miracle win. I know Washington won the 1st meeting between these 2, but Washington has been struggling as of late, and Oregon has been an absolute buzzsaw. 

Big 12 Conference (XII):

Saturday, 11:00 AM – AT&T Stadium –

Tolly Predictions: CFB Conference Title Games – G5 Edition

The Post Season Has Begun, It’s Time to Crown Some Champions.

The outcome of these games will not determine who makes the final iteration of the 4 team playoff. That will have to wait till next year when a G5 champion is guaranteed a spot in the 12 team playoff. There is, however, the matter of which G5 champ earns the coveted NY6 Bowl Bid. Below are my predictions for the G5 Conference Championship games, and how I think the race for a NY6 bowl game plays out. 

  • Odds listed refer to spreads taken from FanDuel at the time of writing
  • All kickoff times listed are Central Time

Conference USA (C-USA):

New Mexico State at Liberty (-10.5) – Friday, 6:00 PM

Prediction:
New Mexico State 10
Liberty 35

Liberty is undefeated, but their schedule is a joke. I doubt they will go to a NY6 game, even if they are undefeated conference champs. 

Mid-America Conference (MAC):

Miami (OH) vs Toledo (-8.5) – Saturday, 11:00 AM, Ford Field 

Prediction:
Miami (OH) 14
Toledo 33

Toledo is a good football team. Their only loss is a close game at Illinois. With a win in the MAC Title Game, they have an outside …

Tolly Predictions: Playoffs? We talking Playoffs?

Who is making the 2023 CFP? Why I think I just might know.

College football is about Saturdays, it’s about rivalries, it’s a sport where the regular season matters more than the postseason… for now. That said, many of us are still looking forward to the CFP to watch the best teams duke it out on the gridiron in their quest for a natty. And to be fair, I think if you want to call your shot on who’s going to win it all, you should do it before the season starts.

(I’m a little late, I know week 0 already happened. But, I got all of my regular season predictions done before that. So give me a break.)

What I’ve Predicted So Far:

ACC:

My full ACC predictions are here.

ACC Championship Game: Florida State vs. Louisville

ACC Champion: Florida State

Notable Records:

Florida State (11-2) – ACC Champ

Louisville (9-4) – ACC Runner-Up

Clemson (10-2)

Notre Dame (9-3)*

North Carolina (9-3)

*join a conference jerks

Pac-12:

My full Pac-12 predictions are here.

Pac-12 Championship Game: Washington vs. Oregon State

Pac-12 Champion: Washington

Notable Records:

Washington (12-1) – Pac-12 Champ

Oregon State (10-3) – Pac-12 Runner-Up

USC (10-2) 

Oregon …

Week 0 Just Happened

What the heck was that? Why was there football yesterday? Isn’t week 1 next weekend?

Week 0 is an honored college football tradition dating all the way back to *checks Wikipedia* 2017 or 1983? Like everything involving the NCAA, there are a multitude of complex rules, rule changes, and weird decisions. To play a week 0 game, the game must be approved by the NCAA; that’s the main thing to keep in mind. There were a bunch of week 0 games in 2002. None were played from 2005 to 2015. And 2017, the current set of rules for week 0 was put in place. Since 2017 we’ve consistently had multiple Week 0 games (ignoring 2020 for obvious reasons).

(If you’re trying to win a bar bet, the actual 1st Week 0 game was in 1983 when #1 Nebraska beat #4 Penn State at Giants Stadium in New Jersey)*

Who Would Even Want to Play in Week 0?

Everyone.

Every team would gladly play a week 0 game given the opportunity. 

It gets the kids back for fall camp 1 week sooner, so coaches get more practices.

It adds another weekend of TV inventory for networks and conferences. (i.e. more …

Tolly Predictions: What to Expect From the Pac-12

Who is winning the Pac-12? What will the order of finish be? Who is making a bowl game?

These will be my record predictions for the Pac-12. I will list every game for the predictions, but the primary takeaway should be the final record. We will also compare my predictions to the over/under win total for each team to see how the betting public feels about the Pac-12.

Predictions for the bottom half of the Pac-12 can be found here.

*Odds listed refer to O/U win totals taken from DraftKings at the time of writing

6th – UCLA – O/U win total: 8.5

Coastal Carolina – W

At San Diego State – L

NC Central – W

At Utah – L

Bye

Washington State – W

At Oregon State – L

At Stanford – W

Colorado – W

At Arizona – L

Arizona State – W

USC – L

California – W

I was kind of shocked to see their win total set at 8.5.  They lost a great QB in DTR and a phenomenal RB in Zach Charbonnet; both are in the NFL now. Chip Kelly has made this a transfer portal team, so year to year they are …

Tolly Predictions: What to Expect From the Pac-12 (Bottom Half)

Who is at the bottom in the Pac-12? What will the order of finish be? Who is making a bowl game?

These will be my record predictions for the Pac-12. I will list every game for the predictions, but the primary takeaway should be the final record. We will also compare my predictions to the over/under win total for each team to see how the betting public feels about the Pac-12.

Predictions for the top half of the Pac-12 can be found here.

*Odds listed refer to O/U win totals taken from DraftKings at the time of writing

7th – Washington State – O/U win total: 6.5

At Colorado State – W

Wisconsin – L

Northern Colorado – W

Oregon State – W

Bye

At UCLA – L

Arizona – W

At Oregon – L

At Arizona State – W

Stanford – W

At California – L

Colorado (Friday) – W

At Washington – L

I’m actually pretty high on Washington State. The Pac-12 is just tough this year. I could easily see this squad beating UCLA or even upsetting Wisconsin, again. They are going to beat somebody above them in the odds. I have it being Oregon State, but …

Tolly Predictions: What to Expect From the SEC West

Who is winning the West? What will the order of finish be? Who is making a bowl game?

These will be my record predictions for the SEC West. I will list every game for the predictions, but the primary takeaway should be the final record. We will also compare my predictions to the over/under win total for each team to see how the betting public feels about the SEC West.

*Odds listed refer to O/U’s taken from DraftKings at the time of writing

7th – Mississippi State – O/U win total: 6.5

Southeastern Louisiana – W

Arizona – W

LSU – L

At South Carolina – L

Alabama – L

Western Michigan – W

Bye

At Arkansas – L

At Auburn – L

Kentucky (HC) – L

At Texas A&M – L

Southern Miss – W

Ole Miss (Thursday) – W

Mississippi State is not a bad team. BUT, when you play in the SEC West, “not bad” is not good enough. I also think this team is still emotionally recovering from the sudden death of beloved HC Mike Leach. 

Unfortunately for them, I see this as a rough year for MS State. I do have them winning the Egg …

Tolly Predictions: What to Expect From the SEC East

Who is winning the East? What will the order of finish be? Who is making a bowl game?

These will be my record predictions for the SEC East. I will list every game for the predictions, but the primary takeaway should be the final record. We will also compare my predictions to the over/under win total for each team to see how the betting public feels about the SEC East.

*Odds listed refer to O/U’s taken from DraftKings at the time of writing

7th – Florida – O/U win total: 5.5

At Utah (Thursday) – L

McNeese – W

Tennessee – L

Charlotte – W

At Kentucky – L

Vanderbilt (HC) – L

At South Carolina – L

Bye

Vs Georgia (Jacksonville) – L

Arkansas – W

At LSU – L

At Missouri – L

Florida State – L

Florida has named Wisconsin washout Graham Mertz as the starting QB. I think they’ve doomed themselves. I am not a believer in Mertz. I think he makes teams worse, not better.

This is a Florida team that went 5-7 last year… with the #4 overall draft pick at QB. Billy Napier will be on the hot seat going into week 5 …

Tolly Predictions: What to Expect From the Big 12

Who is winning the Big 12? What will the order of finish be? Who is making a bowl game?

These will be my record predictions for the Big 12. I will list every game for the predictions, but the primary takeaway should be the final record. We will also compare my predictions to the over/under win total for each team to see how the betting public feels about the Big 12.

Predictions for the bottom half of the Big 12 can be found here.

*Odds listed refer to O/U win totals taken from DraftKings at the time of writing

7th – UCF – O/U win total: 6.5

Kent State (Thursday) – W

At Boise State – L

Villanova – W

At Kansas State – L

Baylor – W

At Kansas – L

Bye

At Oklahoma – L

West Virginia (HC) – W

At Cincinnati – W

Oklahoma State – W

At Texas Tech – L

Houston – W

Of the 4 new additions to the Big 12 this year, UCF is expected to handle the transition the best. They are the only one of the 4 to appear in the top half of the standings for my predictions.

From …

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