Tolly Predictions: CFB Conference Title Games – P5 Edition

The Post Season Has Begun, It’s Time to Crown Some Champions.

The outcome of these games will determine who makes the final iteration of the 4 team playoff. 7 of the 10 Power 5 teams competing next weekend have a shot to make the final 4 (sorry Louisville, Oklahoma State, and Iowa) Below are my predictions for the P5 Conference Championship games, and how I think the race for the 4 Team Playoff pans out. 

  • Odds listed refer to spreads taken from FanDuel at the time of writing
  • All kickoff times listed are Central Time

Pacific-12 Conference (Pac-12):

Friday, 7:00 PM – Allegiant Stadium – Las Vegas, Nevada

Oregon vs Washington (+9.5)

Oregon 42
Washington 35

Expect a full blown offensive explosion. A lot of writers out there think Oregon will splatter the Huskies. I have Oregon winning, but I also have the score close enough that some Big Penix Energy could lead Washington to a miracle win. I know Washington won the 1st meeting between these 2, but Washington has been struggling as of late, and Oregon has been an absolute buzzsaw. 

Big 12 Conference (XII):

Saturday, 11:00 AM – AT&T Stadium – Arlington, Texas

Oklahoma State vs Texas (-13.5)

Oklahoma State 21
Texas 42

I really really really want OK-State to win this game. Since week 1, I’ve been rooting for Not Texas and Not Oklahoma to win the Big 12 Conference. Here’s the problem: since the Cowboys beat Oklahoma in week 10, they have not looked like the same team. They struggled with a bad BYU team last week. Texas, on the other hand, obliterated Texas Tech 57-7. The Longhorns are peaking at the right time, and get the W in Jerry’s World.

Southeastern Conference (SEC):

Saturday, 3:00 PM – Mercedes-Benz Stadium – Atlanta, Georgia

Georgia vs Alabama (+5.5)

Georgia 31
Alabama 28

This should be the best game of the weekend. A win-and-in game for the playoff. Or is it? I believe there is a scenario where Alabam wins, and the playoff has no SEC teams. I just don’t think it’s likely. (Bama wins, Washington wins, FSU wins, Michigan wins, Texas wins = no SEC… probably). Both Alabama and Georgia looked suspect during rivalry week, but just like Michigan over Ohio State, I think the status quo holds. The Georgia Bulldogs continue their dominant run. 

Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC):

Saturday, 7:00 PM – Bank of America Stadium – Charlotte, North Carolina

Louisville vs Florida State (-2.5) 

Louisville 27
Florida State 20

I think this is where the FSU dream ends. They barely escaped Florida last week without QB Jordan Travis. This week, they aren’t so lucky. Louisville is your ACC Champion, and also the reason the ACC misses the playoff. If FSU wins this game, there will be more than 4 teams “deserving” of making the playoff this year. Whoever gets stuck at 5 will wish we moved to a 12 team format just 1 year sooner. 

Big Ten Conference (B1G):

Saturday, 7:00 PM – Lucas Oil Stadium – Indianapolis, Indiana

Michigan vs Iowa (+22.5)

Michigan 42
Iowa 6

This isn’t going to be a game. Michigan is on another level compared to Iowa. Iowa is the 4th best team in the B1G, but that is a very low bar. If Iowa somehow pulls off the miracle, then I have no idea how the committee handles ranking the top 4. Winning the title will be Iowa’s only shot at making an NY6 bowl. But, as my score prediction (and the Vegas spread) shows… it ain’t happening.

Who’s in the Playoff?

There will be no controversy:

  • #1 Georgia
  • #2 Michigan
  • #3 Oregon
  • #4 Texas
  • #5 Washington
  • #6 Florida State OR Ohio State

Everyone in the top 4 will be a conference champion, no 2 loss teams make it, and no undefeated teams get left out. The scenario I am predicting is the scenario the committee wants the most. Will it happen? We’ll have to wait and see. Personally, the scenario I want the most is no SEC OR no Texas (go Ok-St.). Then there will be a little more vitriol behind the arguments about who deserves to be in the top 4, and what the top 4 best teams are. 

But, with what I see happening, we would get 2 last traditional bowl matchups before the 12 team playoff starts next year. So that would be cool. 

Sugar Bowl: 
Georgia vs Texas

Rose Bowl:
Michigan vs Oregon

Want more Walk On Fan? Check out our predictions for the G5 title games and who I think gets the G5 New Year’s 6 Bowl Bid here.

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This article was written by Cole Tollison and edited by Hayden Breene

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