Tolly Predictions: What to Expect From the Big 12

Who is winning the Big 12? What will the order of finish be? Who is making a bowl game?

These will be my record predictions for the Big 12. I will list every game for the predictions, but the primary takeaway should be the final record. We will also compare my predictions to the over/under win total for each team to see how the betting public feels about the Big 12.

Predictions for the bottom half of the Big 12 can be found here.

*Odds listed refer to O/U win totals taken from DraftKings at the time of writing

7th – UCF – O/U win total: 6.5

Kent State (Thursday) – W

At Boise State – L

Villanova – W

At Kansas State – L

Baylor – W

At Kansas – L


At Oklahoma – L

West Virginia (HC) – W

At Cincinnati – W

Oklahoma State – W

At Texas Tech – L

Houston – W

Of the 4 new additions to the Big 12 this year, UCF is expected to handle the transition the best. They are the only one of the 4 to appear in the top half of the standings for my predictions.

From a talent perspective, this is still a G5 roster. They should lose to most of the decent Big 12 teams, and the road trip to Idaho to play Boise State will be brutal.

Record: 7-5 (5-4)

Pick: Over 6.5

6th – TCU – O/U win total: 7.5

Colorado – W

Nicholls – W

At Houston – W


West Virginia – W

At Iowa State – W

BYU (HC) – W

At Kansas State – L


At Texas Tech (Thursday) – L

Texas – L

Baylor – W

At Oklahoma (Friday) – L

Everybody expects TCU to take a step back after their Cinderella run last year. I am part of “everybody.” But I think Vegas is a little low with an U/O of 7.5. I have TCU winning 8 games by starting hot, and then fading as the season drags on.

Record: 8-4 (5-4)

Pick: Over 7.5

5th – Oklahoma – O/U win total: 9.5

Arkansas State – W


At Tulsa – W

At Cincinnati – W

Iowa State – W

Vs Texas (Dallas) – L


UCF (HC) – W

At Kansas – L

At Oklahoma State – L

West Virginia – W

At BYU – W

TCU (Friday) – W

This team went 6-7 last year. And it’s the same team this year.

Why is the O/U at 9.5???

Okay, I know why. It’s because Oklahoma is talented, and last year is viewed as the anomaly, not the new normal. I think the new normal is somewhere in the middle – 8 wins. Even if SMU doesn’t pull off the upset in week 2, my prediction still has the under hitting.

Record: 8-4 (6-3)

Pick: Under 9.5

4th – Oklahoma State – O/U win total: 6.5

Central Arkansas – W

At Arizona State – L

South Alabama – L

At Iowa State – W


Kansas State (Friday) – L

Kansas – W

At West Virginia – W

Cincinnati (HC) – W

Oklahoma – W

At UCF – L

At Houston – W


Gundy is a good coach. This team will have a winning record. That’s pretty much it.

Also, I am willing Oklahoma State to a victory in the last Bedlam game for the foreseeable future. 

Record: 7-5 (6-3)

Pick: Don’t Bet

3rd – Kansas State – O/U win total: 8.5

Southeast Missouri – W

Troy – W

At Missouri – W



At Oklahoma State (Friday) – W

At Texas Tech – L


Houston (HC) – W

At Texas – L

Baylor – W

At Kansas – W

Iowa State – W 

The reigning Big 12 Champion: Kansas State, not TCU. That means 2 things to me –

1: Kansas State is great, people just don’t remember that.

2: Kansas State can’t win the Big 12 this year, the conference is too chaotic for them to repeat.

Record: 10-2 (7-2)

Pick: Over 8.5 – Hammer the Over

2nd – Texas Tech – O/U win total: 7.5

At Wyoming – W

Oregon – W

Tarleton State – W

At West Virginia – W

Houston – W

At Baylor – W

Kansas State (HC) – W

At BYU – L


TCU (Thursday) – W

At Kansas – W


At Texas (Friday) – L 

Texas Tech is the team I believe in more than the national media. Tech isn’t even ranked in the preseason AP poll, I have them at 16 in mine.

They miss Oklahoma. They get Kansas State, TCU, and UCF at home. The tricky part is week 13 at Texas. I have that game as a Big 12 Championship preview. But it’s possible that the game is for a Big 12 berth if Kansas State or Oklahoma already has the top spot locked up.

Record: 10-2 (7-2)

Pick: Over 7.5 – Hammer the Over

1st – Texas – O/U win total: 9.5

Rice – W

At Alabama – W

Wyoming – W

At Baylor – L

Kansas – W

Vs Oklahoma (Dallas) – W


At Houston – W


Kansas State – W

At TCU – W

At Iowa State – W

Texas Tech (Friday) – W

The Texas hype is real. It’s real every year, but this year is different. Right?

I am tentatively all-aboard the Texas hype train. I feel great about picking them to beat Alabama in week 2. But managing their conference schedule I feel less good about. They will lose at least 1 game they shouldn’t, maybe 2.

In general, I agree this team has too much talent not to make the conference title game. Anything worse than that, and the head coach’s seat should be heating up.

Record: 11-1 (8-1)

Pick: Don’t Bet, Texas knows how to let fans down

Big 12 Championship Game: Texas vs Texas Tech

I don’t see how Texas beats Texas Tech 2 weeks in a row. Joey McGuire is proving to be a great coach at Texas Tech and will have learned from any mistakes made in week 13.

Texas Tech loses the battle in week 13 but wins the war in the Big 12 Championship Game.

Champion Pick: Texas Tech (11-2)

Want more Walk On Fan? 

Check out yesterday’s article where we predicted every game for every team in the ACC.

This article was written by Cole Tollison and edited by Hayden Breene

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