The Penultimate Weekend – Week 12 Picks

SEC West Cupcake Week, My Picks For This Week, It’s Almost Over

You want game picks? Well, I’ve got game picks. I’ve got more picks than I’ve done for any week all season. I also have a short rant about some certain teams scheduling practices that I need to get off my chest. I complain every year, but nothing changes. Last week every media person out there said “Upsets are coming.” Well, they lied. This is college football; favorites win almost all the time. That’s why upsets are such a big deal. I don’t foresee much in the way of upsets this week, so picking against the spread will have to be interesting enough (for most of the games). This isn’t the greatest week of matchups, but it’s not bad either. There are a lot of oddball games that are more like setups for the epicness to come next week. 

Rivalry week, I can’t wait. But for now, these games will do. 

SEC West… WTF?

It’s cupcake week in the SEC West. Every single SEC West team is playing a Group of 5 school or an FCS team. It’s basically a glorified bye week for them heading into rivalry weekend. A late November bye makes for a much easier schedule than what the rest of the country has to deal with. 

The SEC needs to be punished for this trash scheduling practice for there to be any possibility of it stopping. I would suggest simply dropping the West teams in the playoff rankings next Tuesday for voluntarily lightening their strength of schedule. 

It will never happen, but that’s what I’d do. 

P.S. Florida State has adopted this trash practice as well. 

  • Odds listed refer to spreads taken from FanDuel at the time of writing

Tolly’s Picks*:

1-7 last week, I was absolutely terrible. This week I’m picking a lot more games, and I’m picking mostly the big games. It’s a bit of a change-up. Let’s see how I do. 

Colorado at Washington State (-4.5) – Friday Night

Colorado is regressing. They aren’t a team that responds well to adversity. Washington State is a solid team; they just have a bad record because they play in a difficult conference. Wazzou wins, and Wazzou covers the 4.5.

Colorado 28
Washington State 36

3 Michigan (-19.5) at Maryland – Favorite Pick

Michigan is an unstoppable force, and Maryland is just in the way. The Wolverines are pissed about the Harbaugh suspension, and subsequent motivation has made them better. They are a true player-led team; not having Jim on the sidelines won’t hurt them one bit.

Michigan 48
Maryland 10

10 Louisville at Miami (PK) 

Louisville’s fairytale ends here. Miami is a good team that has had some bad weeks. The Cardinals fall to the Canes. 

Louisville 21
Miami 24

22 Utah (+1.5) at 17 Arizona

This is a Big 12 game next year. These might even be the top 2 teams in the Big 12 next year. But what about this year? Arizona is good. That’s one of the biggest surprises in the Pac-12 this year. But, Utah is always underestimated. I think Utah wins on the road in Tucson just because a lot of people won’t expect them to. 

Utah 20
Arizona 17

Cincinnati at West Virginia (-6.5) – Favorite Pick

Cincinnati is bad. Really really bad. Luke Fickell’s leaving has left this team a shell of itself. (Or maybe he got out at just the right time). West Virginia has been a pleasantly surprising success story this year. Their coach started week 1 on the hot seat and then delivered bowl eligibility with 3 weeks remaining. Yes, WV got hammered by OU last week, but this week they bounce back vs. Cincinnati. 

Cincinnati 20
West Virginia 36

1 Georgia (-10.5) at 18 Tennessee

Tennessee is grossly overrated exclusively because they are an SEC team. Missouri housed them, and they lost to a bad Florida team. Georgia is peaking at the right time, therefore, Tennessee is toast. Georgia wins and covers.

Georgia 48
Tennessee 14

Illinois at 16 Iowa – Under 31.5

I don’t know who’s going to win, but Iowa hitting the under is like death and taxes… inevitable. Iowa’s best weapon (CB and PR/KR Cooper DeJean) was injured in practice this week and will miss the game. No one likes injuries, but that has to give Illinois some hope.

Illinois 13
Iowa 9

UCLA at USC (-6.5)

UCLA head coach, Chip Kelly, is right on the edge of getting fired. This has not been the season UCLA fans expected. USC has been playing poorly on defense (and losing because of it), but the offense puts up points every week without fail. USC is the better team overall. The Trojans win and cover the 6.5. 

USC 35

21 Kansas State (-9.5) at 25 Kansas

I know they have 3 losses, but Kansas State might be the best team in the Big 12. I wouldn’t put them lower than 2nd (behind Texas). They have been a juggernaut for the 2nd half of this season. Kansas has been good, but their QB is hurt. And we still don’t know if he’ll play. Kansas State wins and covers the 8.5 easily. 

Kansas State 40
Kansas 24

5 Washington at 11 Oregon State (-1.5)

That’s right, Oregon State is favored. Oregon State is undefeated at home this season. And, I picked Oregon State to win this game in my Pac-12 preseason predictions (Which are doing quite well). It’s going to be raining. A lot. I don’t see Penix Jr. taking over the game in a downpour. Do I know what will happen? No. But I think this will be a good game and I’ll go with my preseason call. This is Washington’s 1 regular season loss of the year. 

Washington 21
Oregon State 28

Nebraska (+5.5) at Wisconsin 

See my full thoughts on this game in this week’s Wisco Wednesday

Nebraska 13
Wisconsin 17

7 Texas at Iowa State (+7.5) – Upset Pick

Texas keeps winning close games. How long can they keep getting away with that? I say it ends this week. Iowa State has been feisty all year, and they have a tradition of knocking off ranked foes at home (similar to the spoilermakers). Iowa State beats top 10 Texas which keeps them out of the Big 12 Title Game. A fitting end for their residency in the B12.

Texas 24
Iowa State 28

How I’ve Done so far this Season:

Upset Picks must be +3 or greater to be “Upsets”

Favorite Picks: 6-6 (OK-State was pitiful at UCF)
Upset Picks: 4-10 (Upset picks are hard)
Total Record ATS: 41-45-1 (1-7 last week. Like the Badgers, I’m at rock bottom)

*These picks are to express my opinion on games from a point spread perspective. I am not advocating for you, the reader, to gamble on any of these games. Please bet responsibly.

Want more Walk On Fan? Check out our piece yesterday about some early SEC coaching moves

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This article was written by Cole Tollison and edited by Hayden Breene

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