No one knows anything. Everything is possible. It must be week 1.
There’s not much more to say than that, right? We think we know who’s good. But every year top 10 teams finish unranked, and a few unranked teams make their way into the top 15. (Or the all the way to the title game – see 2022 TCU)
Ignoring week 0 for a second. Week 1 is the only week where you look at all 133 teams and can say: Half of you are about to have a losing record. And the other half gets to start 1-0. The math isn’t that perfect though, there are too many games against FCS teams.
Unfortunately, most week 1 games are unwatchable. Tune up games, cupcakes, preseason, etc. Call it whatever you want. There are a lot of 20+ point favorites that will steamroll lesser teams by the middle of the 2nd quarter.
But there are some games I am looking forward to, and others I will keep an eye on if they get interesting. Week 1 spans 5 days, so this will be a little on the long side for a preview piece.
- Odds listed refer to spreads taken from FanDuel at the time of writing.
What I’ll Be Watching
Thursday:
Primary:
Florida at Utah (-7) – 7:00 PM CST
I have to see how Graham Mertz does in his debut for Florida. I also want to watch some Utah football; with how much I’ve been hyping up the Pac-12, I owe them at least that much. QB Cam Rising may or may not be ready to go by kickoff (ACL tear in last year’s Rose Bowl). Utah might need him if Florida is better than I’m giving them credit for.
Backup:
Nebraska at Minnesota (-7.5) – 7:00 PM CST
I think Minnesota is going to win this one, but it might be close and competitive all the way to the end. If Utah pulls away from Florida early, I’ll switch to this game. I wonder what the new Nebraska looks like under Matt Rhule. And I want to see the new QB Minnesota has, Kaliakmanis. Remember, Minnesota has won 9 games each of the last 2 years. Fleck has made them a respectable program.
Friday:
I have no major watch plans for Friday. There aren’t many games, and there’s only one P5 vs. P5 matchup.
Track Score:
Central Michigan at Michigan State (-14.5) – 6:00 PM CST
If Michigan State is as bad as I think they’ll be, they could blow this game. If it’s close in the 2nd half I’ll tune in. I’ll mention it now so you can see it coming later in the season. MSU’s secondary was horrendous last year, and it isn’t likely to be better this year. Any team with an above average passing game can beat Sparty.
Have on in the background:
Louisville vs. Georgia Tech (+8.5) – 6:30 PM CST – Mercedes-Benz Stadium (home of the Atlanta Falcons)
If I’m hanging with friends or out at a bar, this will likely be on in the background. I don’t have much to say here though. Isaac Guerendo transferred from Wisconsin to Louisville, I hope he does well.
Saturday – GAME DAY:
11:00 AM CST:
Colorado at TCU (-20.5)
COACH PRIME vs. CFP-Runner Up. TCU should blow Colorado out, but I have to see what Deion has done with Colorado. What if the massive roster overhaul in Boulder pays off? What if the two-way player, Travis Hunter, lives up to his #1 recruit status? This should be a very entertaining watch.
Other games to track:
Utah State at Iowa (-25.5)
Last year Iowa was on upset watch every time they stepped on the field. This was due to their infamously bad offense. Is the Iowa offense still putrid in 2023? We shall see. Fortunately for Iowa, Utah State is a bottom feeder in the Mountain West this year. Brian Ferentz can use this as a tune up to get McNamara used to his joke of an offense. The Iowa defense might be the highest scoring unit on the field for this one.
Virginia vs Tennessee (-28.5)
Tennessee should blow out Virginia. But this is a cool non-con game. I’m mostly interested in what we can take away regarding Volunteer QB, Joe Milton. How he does will matter down the road against better competition.
My eyeballs won’t be pointed at the Colorado – TCU game for much past halftime. I’ll be pregaming for the Buffalo at Wisconsin game. If we decide to tailgate, I’ll just keep up with these games on my phone.
2:30 PM CST:
Buffalo at Wisconsin (-27.5) – I’ll be in attendance
The Luke Fickell debut. This should be a blast. I have more to say in my Wisconsin preview that comes out tomorrow. Once it is posted, you can find it here.
Other games to track:
Ohio State at Indiana (+29.5)
Is Kyle McCord or Devin Brown the OSU QB? Do they look good? How bad can Indiana be?
Boise State at Washington (-15)
A sneakily good game. Washington is great, but Boise State is one of the best G5s out there.
6:30 PM CST:
Primary:
West Virginia at Penn State (-20.5)
This is a cool non con game. It feels like it used to be a rivalry, but I’m not old enough to confirm that. I’m interested to see the new PSU QB, Drew Allar. West Virginia should be bad, but everyone is undefeated until the season starts; so I’m sure there’s hope in Morgantown. In College Park, they are likely just waiting for games against the big 2 in the B1G. Beaver Stadium at night is an epic football venue.
Backup:
North Carolina vs South Carolina (+2.5) – Bank of America Stadium (home of the Carolina Panthers)
PSU will likely blow out West Virginia. On the other hand, the UNC – SCAR spread is within a field goal. It should be a good game. UNC QB, Drake Maye, will likely be playing on Sunday’s next year. I want to see how he does now that his OC is gone. Food for thought, UNC’s defense is about as bad as Iowa’s offense, so this should be a very high scoring affair.
Upset Watch:
Toledo at Illinois (-9.5)
Toledo won the MAC last year. Illinois could lose this if they aren’t careful.
That said, I think Illinois will be better than people expect. Fans are sleeping on Bielema in the B1G West. He’s won here before with Wisconsin, and he should handle even the best of the G5 ranks.
9:30 PM CST:
I’ll watch at least part of the game:
Coastal Carolina at UCLA (-14.5)
Coastal runs a crazy offense. It’s kinda the triple-option, but with more passing. It’s hard to describe unless you see it. UCLA has a new hot shot true freshman QB, Dante Moore. I want to see how he does.
Sunday:
Track scores:
Northwestern at Rutgers (no line) – 11:00 AM CST
Oregon State at San Jose State (+16.5) – 2:30 PM CST
I have no real interest in these games, but they are the only ones on during the day.
Watch:
LSU vs Florida State (+2.5) – 6:30 PM CST – Camping World Stadium (Orlando)
This is the best week 1 game. It’s a top ten matchup with great QBs on both sides. My best games of week 1 lays out pretty clearly why I think you should be watching this game.
Monday:
I’ll be golfing in the morning.
Then…
Clemson at Duke (+12.5) – 7:00 PM CST
I’ve called my shot and I’m sticking to it. Duke upsets Clemson here to shock everyone week 1. Having new offensive and defensive coordinators causes a slow start for Clemson that they can’t dig out of. Also, Duke won 9 games last year; show the Blue Devils some respect.
Spread Picks*:
Below are the only games I would actually consider betting myself. Anything mentioned above that isn’t listed below, I think the spread is well placed and I wouldn’t go near for gambling purposes. I’ll track my record for these picks all season so we can see if I actually know anything.
Utah (-6.5) – Favorite Pick
I can’t believe in Graham Mertz. Cam Rising’s backup is hurt, so I really hope Rising can play.
Nebraska (+7)
I think Rhule keeps it close in Minneapolis.
TCU (-20.5)
Deion falls flat in week 1.
Utah State (+25.5)
How can Iowa win by 26 if they can’t even score 26?
Ohio State (-29.5)
New QB, no problem. OSU can name the score before kickoff.
Penn State (-20.5)
West Virginia is bad.
LSU (-2.5)
LSU has more talent than FSU. And 2.5 is basically asking who wins… I think it’s LSU.
Duke (+12.5) – Duke moneyline
My upset pick. Duke will be good this year.
*These picks are to express my opinion on games from a point spread perspective. I am not advocating for you, the reader, to gamble on any of these games. Please bet responsibly.
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This article was written by Cole Tollison and edited by Hayden Breene