Cole Tollison

This is Part 12 of a series where I go week by week ranking what I expect to be the biggest games in college football. For a longer description of what this series is, start with part 1 here!

Three Big Ten teams are featured this week, they just aren’t in the Big Ten yet. So that means more Pac-12 love. But the best game is obvious. The SEC matchup featured is not only the best game of week 12, but one of the most anticipated games of 2023. 

3rd – UCLA at USC

So USC just had to play Washington, and then Oregon. What’s their reward for getting through that pair of northwest sledgehammers? They get to play inter-city rival UCLA, who is on an upswing, and also capable of winning the Pac-12.

This soon-to-be Big Ten rivalry is for ownership of LA. It’s too bad most of LA cares more about baseball and basketball than football (pro or college). This is the only game for either team where fans can be certain LA will be a majority of the fans in the stands.

2nd – Washington at Oregon State

This series has become a Pac-12 marketing campaign. But …

This is Part 11 of a series where I go week by week ranking what I expect to be the biggest games in college football. For a longer description of what this series is, start with part 1 here!

The Pac-12 has become a staple of this series, and they will continue to show up in future additions. I implore you to follow them this year, especially because it’s the last year of Pac-12 football (as we know it). The competition was fierce this week, and the honorable mentions could turn out to belong on this list by the time we hit week 11.

3rd – Miami at Florida State

Rivalry game alert. A Sunshine State Showdown. Trademark pending.

Emphasis on “A” because there are plenty of other teams in Florida for these two to hate. But this year, these are the top two teams in the state. 

The series is 35-32 all time with Miami on top. 

Both of these teams are used to competing for national championships and dominating TV ratings. Recently, they’ve both been down a bit. But Florida State is rising (appearing in the top 10 of most polls), and Miami has turned the recruiting ship …

My ballot for the AP Top 25 – If they let me have one.

If the AP Top 25 let me have a ballot, this is how mine would look. It’s a ranking, not a power rating. But in the preseason, rankings are irrelevant. So it will have some power rating aspects to it. 

Confused? Good, me too. 

I’ll explain my picks in groups of 5 from 25 to 1. Then, at the bottom, I have a list of 1-40. I went 40 deep to show what my personal “others receiving votes” section would look like. 

25-21

25 – Tulane

24 – Illinois

23 – Maryland

22 – North Carolina

21 – South Carolina

Tulane is the top G5 team. They beat USC in the Cotton Bowl last year, and they return most of that team. But, they are still a G5 with less talent than everyone above them. They will have to earn a higher ranking, not be gifted one.

The middle of the B1G is better than people give it credit for, Maryland and Illinois are quality teams. UNC is a good team with a great QB, but losing OC Phil Longo will hurt. South Carolina has outperformed …

This is Part 10 of a series where I go week by week ranking what I expect to be the biggest games in college football. For a longer description of what this series is, start with part 1 here!

A rare week 10 non-conference game makes this list. And the top 2 are massive conference matchups that will impact who plays their respective conference title games. There are playoff implications all over the top 3 this week. 

3rd – Notre Dame at Clemson

The schedules for Notre Dame and Clemson are very top heavy. They have some huge, must watch matchups, and the rest of the schedules fades into the background noise of college football. 

Notre Dame is the only team in FBS that plays 3 teams with an O/U win total 10 or higher. Three massive games. And this one, against Clemson, completes the set. This is also the only one ND plays on the road. 

Clemson feels like a team that’s been down lately. But that’s just a warped perception. They won 11 games last year and 10 games in 2021. I guess 10 wins is down for Clemson. The fanbase expects to make the playoffs; that’s the …

This is Part 9 of a series where I go week by week ranking what I expect to be the biggest games in college football. For a longer description of what this series is, start with part 1 here!

This is a fairly eclectic spread of games across college football. I’m finding that I see a lot of potentially great games in the Pac-12 and Big 12 because I expect more parity in those conferences. The SEC and ACC are just a little too top heavy, so the best games are reduced to just when the juggernauts play each other. The B1G is top heavy too, but they also have some fun rivalry games to look forward to. 

3rd – BYU at Texas

A brand new Big 12 conference matchup. And a short lived one at that. This is likely the only BYU at Texas conference game we will ever see. 

Texas should be rolling at this point in the season, either undefeated or with one loss. Quin Ewers’ Hiesman rumblings will draw new viewers to the Longhorns. Texas will be back, probably.

BYU will be… BYU. By that I mean I haven’t the slightest idea how good BYU will …

It’s all about the Money.

With the Pac-12 teetering on the edge of existence, schools are having to make tough decisions about where they fit in the conference landscape. Stay put, or move somewhere else? It’s a big decision, with lots of moving parts. But the primary diver: Money.

Money is why conference realignment is constantly in the news right now

But how much money?

Well, let’s look at the conferences. I’ll try to clarify what is rumor, and what is certain.

Big 12: Concrete numbers, Traditional media partners

The Big 12 members will make 31.7 Million per team, on Avg, for the 6 years of the deal (2025 through 2030). That is up from the previous deal which averaged 22 Million per year.

The new deal is with ESPN and FOX:

• About 20 Million from ESPN
• About 11.7 Million from FOX

ESPN has it in writing that up to 4 new members will be guaranteed a full share of their 20 million chunk (as long as they were P5 members before they joined).

FOX has it in writing that up to 2 new members will be guaranteed a full share of their 11.7 million chunk (as long as they …

Adding Oregon and Washington feels inevitable.

Adding Stanford and Cal… that’s the surprise.

It always starts with money.

Let’s say the average media payout per B1G team is 70 million per year. I think that’s a little low, but that is a very reported/assumed number. 

Will FOX, CBS, and NBC agree to pay a combined extra 280 million per year to add those 4 schools to the Big Ten (ignoring inventory for now)?

Not a chance.

What about half share for each – 35 million per school per year, 140 million total?

Now we can have a discussion. This is likely where the conversation starts with money.

It’s what Rutgers and Maryland did when they entered the B1G. They took half shares each for their first media deal.

Is a half share enough for those 4 schools?

YES.

It’s kinda that simple, but I’ll give you a list to make it clear. And remember, I think we are low balling the numbers a bit.

• 35 million is more than the rumored 20 million base the Pac-12 is offered by Apple
• 35 million is more than the 31.7 million the Big 12 is locked in for through 2030
• They would be