SEC

Week 3 – Some Thoughts on Some Games

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Rivalries in week 3? Only 1 ranked matchup.. on Saturday. And a traditional Rose Bowl game in primetime.

THE BEST RANKED VS RANKED GAME:
20 Arizona at 14 Kansas State

Friday Night Football for this non-con showdown between ranked Big 12 schools. Wait, did I read that right? Yes, despite both schools being in the same conference, this game will not count towards the league standings. This is because the game was scheduled before the realignment shenanigans. 

THE OTHER RANKED VS RANKED GAME:
24 Boston College at 6 Missouri

Florida State was ranked when they lost to Boston College, so now Boston College gets to be ranked. That’s a nice little prize. It won’t last long though, Mizzouri likely runs away with this one. 

ONE-SIDED RIVALRY GAMES:
9 Oregon at Oregon State
Washington State vs Washington (Seattle)
18 Notre Dame at Purdue

Big Ten rivalry week in *checks notes* … week 3. Historically these are games where the big brand crushes the little guy and moves on. But Oregon, Washington, and Notre Dame should all be on upset watch this week. ND did manage to blow it last week against Northern Illinois as a 28 point favorite. 

A

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Wisco Wednesday: It’s Bama Time

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Last week was a little better. But with the elephant rolling into town, what can Wisconsin do to have a chance?

Looking Back: 

South Dakota – 13
Wisconsin – 27

Wisconsin won by 14 in week 1, then did it again in week 2. So did things get better, or worse?

Despite the opponent being from a lower division, this was actually a tougher matchup. South Dakota is rated higher than Western Michigan by advanced metrics and Vegas had the spread tighter (19.5 vs 24.5).

Wisconsin’s offense isn’t pretty, it’s actually quite bad. But, it is measurably better than last year. Across 2 games this season Wisconsin has had 6 drives of 13+ plays. Last SEASON Wisconsin had 5 total. Wisconsin can move the ball, it’s just ugly. The Badgers are currently 133rd of 134 teams in explosive play rate – i.e. the offense is the opposite of explosive (last is Air Force).  

Looking forward

Game Preview: Alabama 

#4 Alabama at Wisconsin 

Where: Camp Randall Stadium

When: Saturday, 9/14 – 11:00 AM (CST)

How to Watch: FOX

Spread: Alabama -16.5

O/U: 50.5

Alabama Crimson Tide’s 2023 Record: 12-2
Won the SEC Championship Game vs Georgia
Lost in the CFP Semifinals …

Wisco Wednesday: It’s Bama Time Read More »

Tolly Predictions: The Playoffs

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Who are the conference winners? Is the playoff dominated by the SEC and B1G? Bracketology has infected college football. 

These are my preseason picks for the playoff.

Yes, I know, Florida State already has a loss from week 0. I was never going to pick them to win the ACC (see the top ACC team in my preseason top 25 as evidence). I’m late, but this is better than never. 

Conference Championships:

SEC: Georgia over Ole Miss
Big Ten: Ohio State over Oregon
ACC: Miami over Virginia Tech
Big 12: Oklahoma State over Utah
American: Memphis over UTSA

Round 1:

9 Michigan at 8 Penn State 
10 Texas at 7 Ole Miss
11 Notre Dame at 6 Alabama
12 Memphis at 5 Oregon

Quarterfinals:

1 Georgia vs 8 Penn State
2 Ohio State vs 10 Texas
3 Miami vs 6 Alabama
4 Oklahoma State vs 5 Oregon

Semifinals:

1 Georgia vs 5 Oregon 
2 Ohio State vs 6 Alabama

Championship Game:

1 Georgia vs 2 Ohio State

National Champion:

The Ohio State Buckeyes

Want more Walk On Fan? 

Check out our B1G predictions that came out yesterday.

Follow us on Twitter (or X) @here.

This article was written by Cole …

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Tolly’s Top 25 – Preseason

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My ballot for the AP Top 25 – If they let me have one

Is it too early to talk about the top 25? Absolutely. But AP ballots are due on Thursday August 1st. So if I’m going to have my ballot ready in time, I have to do it now. 

Top 5

1 – Ohio State
2 – Oregon
3 – Georgia
4 – Texas
5 – Alabama

I think these are the only 5 teams that can win a National Championship this year. The top 2 are the best of the B1G, and the next 3 are all SEC programs with loaded rosters. Unsurprisingly, these are also the 5 most likely teams to win the natty according to Vegas. As you can see, I’m leaning B1G over SEC at the top right now. 

6-10

6 – Penn State
7 – Notre Dame
8 – Ole Miss
9 – Michigan
10 – Utah

Penn State at 6 will be high for some, but they are one of very few teams with a proven QB and an elite run game. 

QB Riley Leonard transferred from Duke to Notre Dame. I expect him to elevate the golden domes who already …

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Finding Florida State and Clemson A New Home

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Have you ever sold your house with the assumption you’ll find a place to live after you’re kicked out? That’s kinda FSU’s and Clemson’s approach to conference realignment right now.

Leaving The ACC

It’s a foregone conclusion that Florida State and Clemson are leaving the ACC. There are open lawsuits between the teams and the conference. There are some disputed record requests, and a lot of slander is being thrown around between the 3 parties. When they actually get out (sometime between 2025 and 2027 seems reasonable), how much they have to pay (well over 200 million each), and where they are going (TBD) are all just “details” at this point. 

But the “where are they going” detail is what I find most interesting. Florida State and Clemson believe they will get an invite from the B1G or SEC. But what if they don’t?

Why Not The SEC or B1G

The SEC is already in the states of South Carolina and Florida, so FSU and Clemson don’t add any new TV markets or recruiting territory. Most importantly, Clemson and FSU would each take up a piece of the pie of money that the current 16 teams split 16 ways. …

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Who Can Win the Natty?

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There are 134 FBS teams. But let’s be honest, not all of them are capable of winning a national title. Who are the select few that could do it in 2024?

The Blue Chip Ratio

There is a metric used to determine who is capable of winning the national championship that has never been wrong since its inception in 2011, and would presumably be accurate going back to the inception of that national championship game.

This metric is the Blue Chip Ratio.
It’s quite simple. Over the last 4 recruiting cycles, a team must have over 50% of high school recruits be “blue chip” players. A blue chip player is a 4 or 5 star recruit. The transfer portal doesn’t matter. If the player plays doesn’t matter. If you have a bunch of 3 stars that are projected 1st round NFL draft picks, that doesn’t matter. Just acquire as much high school talent as possible.

As of right now, there are 407 blue chip players in the 2025 high school class. Teams generally add 20-30 high school recruits per year. When you consider that there are 68 Power 4 schools, that’s not a lot of talent to go around. …

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A Season of Change

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A lot has changed in college football in the last year. Thankfully you’ve found this article that will catch you up to date with the biggest changes. 

The Big 10 (18)

  • The Big Ten has dropped divisions. At the end of the season, the 2 teams with the best conference records will play in the B1G Championship game. (This means Ohio State vs Michigan could happen in back-to-back weeks).
  • 4 new schools have been added to the B1G, bringing membership to 18 schools. The new teams are Oregon, Washington, UCLA, and USC.
  • B1G Friday Night is now a thing. There will be a Big Ten Friday night football game every week this season except week 3.
  • Channel flipping. The “top 3” B1G games each week have locked in TV times and networks. FOX at Noon, CBS at 3:30, and NBC at 7:30 (all times EST). Sometimes NBC will put their “best” game on Peacock. It is what it is. 

The ACC 

  • They have also done away with divisions like the B1G.
  • They have added 3 new schools to the conference bringing membership to 17 schools. SMU, Stanford, and Cal are in the ACC now.
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B1G Bowl Games Announced

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Dates, Locations, and Opponents Are Set.

In a normal year, there are a lot of B1G vs SEC bowl games. This year, there are even more. College Football is racing towards a Power 2 and all other conferences are becoming less relevant. See, 13-0 FSU missing the CFP as proof. Of the 12 teams playing in the NY6, 10 of them will be in the SEC or B1G next year (5 a piece). 

I have the Pac-12 members who are joining the B1G in August 2024 listed as “Bonus” B1G bowl matchups. All 4 of the new B1G members (USC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington) have at least 6 wins this season, which is more than B1G West was able to muster. 

  • Odds listed were taken from FanDuel at the time of writing.

SEC vs B1G

Rose Bowl: 1 Michigan vs 4 Alabama (+1.5) – CFP
Jan 1, 2024 – Rose Bowl Stadium – Pasadena, California

Cotton Bowl: 7 Ohio State vs 9 Missouri (+3.5)
Dec 29, 2023 – AT&T Stadium – Arlington, Texas

Peach Bowl: 10 Penn State vs 11 Ole Miss (+3.5)
Dec 30, 2023 – Mercedes-Benz Stadium – Atlanta, Georgia…

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Tolly Predictions: CFB Conference Title Games – P5 Edition

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The Post Season Has Begun, It’s Time to Crown Some Champions.

The outcome of these games will determine who makes the final iteration of the 4 team playoff. 7 of the 10 Power 5 teams competing next weekend have a shot to make the final 4 (sorry Louisville, Oklahoma State, and Iowa) Below are my predictions for the P5 Conference Championship games, and how I think the race for the 4 Team Playoff pans out. 

  • Odds listed refer to spreads taken from FanDuel at the time of writing
  • All kickoff times listed are Central Time

Pacific-12 Conference (Pac-12):

Friday, 7:00 PM – Allegiant Stadium – Las Vegas, Nevada

Oregon vs Washington (+9.5)

Prediction:
Oregon 42
Washington 35

Expect a full blown offensive explosion. A lot of writers out there think Oregon will splatter the Huskies. I have Oregon winning, but I also have the score close enough that some Big Penix Energy could lead Washington to a miracle win. I know Washington won the 1st meeting between these 2, but Washington has been struggling as of late, and Oregon has been an absolute buzzsaw. 

Big 12 Conference (XII):

Saturday, 11:00 AM – AT&T Stadium –

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The Penultimate Weekend – Week 12 Picks

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SEC West Cupcake Week, My Picks For This Week, It’s Almost Over

You want game picks? Well, I’ve got game picks. I’ve got more picks than I’ve done for any week all season. I also have a short rant about some certain teams scheduling practices that I need to get off my chest. I complain every year, but nothing changes. Last week every media person out there said “Upsets are coming.” Well, they lied. This is college football; favorites win almost all the time. That’s why upsets are such a big deal. I don’t foresee much in the way of upsets this week, so picking against the spread will have to be interesting enough (for most of the games). This isn’t the greatest week of matchups, but it’s not bad either. There are a lot of oddball games that are more like setups for the epicness to come next week. 

Rivalry week, I can’t wait. But for now, these games will do. 

SEC West… WTF?

It’s cupcake week in the SEC West. Every single SEC West team is playing a Group of 5 school or an FCS team. It’s basically a glorified bye week for them heading …

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